November 9, 2026 | LPL Research
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The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is becoming increasingly intertwined with the broader U.S. economy, fueling a surge in imports of semiconductors and servers while making data center construction an important source of business investment. That spending has supported growth but also widened the trade deficit, while a changing political landscape could bring greater scrutiny to the power demands, permitting, and costs associated with the buildout. None of that necessarily derails the AI investment cycle, but it could introduce more friction after a period of breakneck expansion. For investors, the shift is a reminder that enthusiasm over new technology ultimately runs into an old market reality: Capital spending can drive an investment boom, but productivity, profits, inflation, and interest rates will determine whether it delivers lasting returns.

November 2, 2026 | LPL Research
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Bonds have been behind the world’s biggest buildouts, effectively financing the future throughout history. And while equity markets have remained front and center amid the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) driven bull market, as hyperscaler capital expenditures (capex) close in on $1 trillion per year, what was mostly an equity market story may now be turning into a rates market story as well. Hyperscalers have routinely begun selling longer-maturity bonds, and smaller borrowers have also entered the mix. With capex guidance continuing to grow, the supply wave is likely far from over, and markets have broadly absorbed this issuance well. But at a price. Here, we’ll discuss the impacts of the AI buildout on both the Treasury and credit markets, and what this could mean for investors.

October 26, 2026 | LPL Research
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We are now over a week into third quarter earnings season, and so far, we would characterize the results as mixed against a high bar. With about one quarter of S&P 500 companies having reported, with the biggest segment being banks and capital markets, results have not been particularly impressive as a group. While a solid 83% of companies have exceeded earnings targets, the average upside earnings surprise has been meager at 2.5%.

October 19, 2026 | LPL Research
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Meta’s September launch of Muse, a personal artificial intelligence (AI) agent designed to act on a user’s behalf across digital workflows, crystallized the market’s latest disruption narrative. If AI can make consumer switching easier, which business models are truly protected by moats and which are merely monetizing friction? While we are skeptical that AI agents will disrupt businesses whose moats were earned through differentiated products, services, or brands, we do see potential disruption risk for businesses that largely benefit from consumer inertia, like forgetting to cancel subscriptions or not wanting to spend time on price comparisons.

October 12, 2026 | LPL Research
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Bank lending rarely commands the attention that payrolls, inflation, or consumer spending do. But it helps determine how much momentum the economy can sustain. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, the workhorse of corporate finance, pay for everything from working capital to machinery and software. When banks are willing to lend and companies are eager to borrow, it suggests executives see enough opportunity ahead to put money to work.

October 5, 2026 | LPL Research
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At roughly $1.0 trillion this fiscal year, interest costs now exceed what the government spends on defense or Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects net interest to climb from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6% over the next decade. That projection was built on a 10-year yield averaging 4.1% this year and settling around 4.4% longer term, and we are above that path. By the CBO's own estimate, rates one percentage point above its baseline would push debt to 222% of GDP by 2056 instead of 175%.